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Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) memprediksi fenomena La Nina akan melanda Indonesia pada akhir 2025 hingga awal 2026. Meski diperkirakan hanya berintensitas lemah, fenomena ini tetap berpotensi meningkatkan curah hujan di sejumlah wilayah Indonesia.
Deputi Bidang Meteorologi BMKG, Guswanto, menjelaskan La Nina merupakan fenomena iklim global yang dipicu pendinginan suhu permukaan laut di Samudra Pasifik bagian tengah dan timur. Kondisi ini biasanya berdampak pada meningkatnya curah hujan di wilayah Indonesia.
“BMKG memprediksi La Nina akan terjadi pada akhir tahun 2025 hingga awal 2026 dengan intensitas lemah (potensi 50-70%). Meski tergolong lemah, dampaknya tetap signifikan,” kata Guswanto, Sabtu (10/10/2025).
Guswanto menjelaskan, peningkatan curah hujan akibat La Nina dapat menimbulkan potensi bencana hidrometeorologi seperti banjir, tanah longsor, dan angin kencang, terutama di wilayah yang memiliki sistem drainase kurang optimal.
Jakarta termasuk wilayah yang sangat rentan terhadap banjir saat La Nina terjadi. Beberapa faktor pemicunya curah hujan tinggi dan intensitas hujan yang meningkat, drainase kota yang belum optimal, permukaan tanah yang rendah dan dekat laut,” paparnya.
Data dari BMKG menyebut musim hujan 2025/2026 di Indonesia tidak terjadi secara serentak lantaran tiap wilayah memiliki Zona Musim (ZOM) yang berbeda. Guswanto pun membeberkan awal musim hujan pada Agustus 2025 dialami wilayah Sumatera dan Kalimantan.
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